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Thursday, April 19, 2012

Nicki Minaj, Rascal Flatts Aiming for Top of Billboard 200

by Keith Caulfield, L.A.  |   April 06, 2012 8:23 EDT

Nicki Minaj is on track to score her second No. 1 album on the Billboard 200, while Rascal Flatts is heading for its eighth top 10 set.

Industry sources suggest Minaj's "Roman Reloaded" will sell around 215,000 to 235,000 and easily debut at No. 1 while Rascal Flatts' "Changed" may start in the No. 3 slot with around 100,000 to 120,000. (The sales tracking week for next week's Billboard charts ends on Sunday, April 8.)

The new Billboard 200 chart's top 10 will be revealed on the morning of Wednesday, April 11.

Rascal Flatts should also debuted at No. 1 on our Country Albums chart, netting its seventh leader. All of the band's studio sets have bowed at No. 1, save for its self-titled 2000 debut. It bowed at No. 14 on the Country tally, on its way to a No. 3 peak.

Lionel Richie's "Tuskegee," which opened at No. 2 on the Billboard 200 this past week with 199,000 sold (according to Nielsen SoundScan), should see a relatively slight second-week decrease in sales. It will probably sell around 100,000 copies and end up in the top five. Easter week shopping is likely helping its sales, as is a solid slate of promotional activities. This week, Richie was interviewed on NPR's "All Things Considered" (April 2), played "The Ellen DeGeneres Show" the same day, performed on "Jimmy Kimmel Live" (4) and sang on "The Talk" (5).

However, the woman who beat him for the top of the chart -- Madonna -- will likely take a significant tumble with her No. 1 set "MDNA." It will perhaps move 50,000 copies this week and may end up around Nos. 10 or 11 next week. It bowed at No. 1 with 359,000. Her first week was bolstered by sales gained from a concert ticket/album promotion as well as banked pre-orders from iTunes. So, a sizable second-week drop was expected.

On Nielsen SoundScan's Building chart (below), Minaj's "Roman Reloaded" is No. 1, Adele's "21" is No. 2 and Rascal Flatts is No. 3. The Building tally is a precursor to the final Billboard 200 ranking -- reflecting the first four days (Monday through Thursday) of SoundScan's tracking week as reported by six major merchants.

One Direction's "Up All Night" in in fifth place, Of Monsters & Men's "My Head is an Animal" is sixth and the soundtrack to "The Hunger Games" is seventh. Marvin Sapp's new "I Win" is at No. 8, Alabama Shakes' "Boys & Girls" is No. 9 and Shinedown's "Amaryllis" is at No. 10.

Nielsen SoundScan Building ChartThe Building Chart reflects the first four days (Monday through Thursday) of SoundScan's tracking week (which ends Sunday) as reported by six major merchants: iTunes, Trans World Entertainment, Best Buy, Starbucks, Target and Anderson Merchandisers. Billboard estimates that they make up about 85% of all U.S. album sales.

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